Festive Menu Planning and Smart Food Swaps

As the festive season approaches, caterers are facing a familiar challenge: creating memorable winter menus while keeping food costs under control. The latest CRG Winter 2026 Commodity Report highlights continued pressure across several key ingredients, from seafood and meat to potatoes, cheese and Christmas baking essentials.

However, it’s not all bad news. Stable prices for eggs, olive oil and orange juice, alongside relatively stable pork and pasta markets, present opportunities to find value and make the most of seasonal demand.

At Trevors Foodservice, we want to help our customers make informed purchasing decisions, explore alternative ingredients and keep their menus profitable throughout the busiest time of the year.

Which food commodities are changing this winter?

The report highlights several important trends for caterers to consider when planning their festive menus.

Seafood costs continue to climb. Cod and haddock prices remain under significant pressure, with prices more than doubling over the past three years. Skipjack tuna is approaching historical price highs, while salmon has increased by around 15.5% in the past three months. Cold water prawn prices are also up by more than 10% year on year, making a traditionally popular Christmas starter more expensive to produce.

Meat prices remain firm. UK beef prices are still historically high, with the latest market commentary reporting an increase of around 10p per kilogram. Lamb supplies remain tight, while chicken markets face ongoing cost pressures and changes to international trade following the suspension of Brazilian poultry imports into the EU. Pork, meanwhile, offers a comparatively stable option for winter menus.

Cheese availability is under pressure. Feta and halloumi are both facing restricted supplies due to limited raw milk availability, with prices expected to remain firm through winter. This could affect caterers relying on these cheeses for vegetarian dishes, salads and sharing plates.

Christmas baking ingredients are becoming more expensive. Almond prices have risen from around £1.40 per pound 18 months ago to more than £3 per pound. Sultanas and raisins may offer some relief as the new Turkish crop arrives, although smaller berry sizes are expected.

Potatoes could become more expensive. The report highlights concerns that UK and European potato harvests could fall around 3.5 million tonnes below expectations, potentially tightening availability and putting further pressure on prices.

Festive menu swaps to help protect your margins

Making a small change to a recipe or reviewing portion sizes can help manage costs without losing the appeal of a dish. Here are some ideas to consider when planning your Christmas menus.

1. Give your prawn cocktail a premium makeover

Cold water prawns are up by more than 10% year on year, putting pressure on the cost of one of the most recognisable Christmas starters.

Rather than removing prawn cocktail from your menu, consider using a smaller, carefully portioned serving of prawns alongside additional ingredients such as crisp lettuce, avocado and a complementary seafood garnish.

For a premium twist, serve a prawn cocktail with salmon flakes, a homemade Marie Rose sauce and an attractive garnish. Presented in a glass or elegant starter dish, it can still command a premium menu price while helping you manage the cost of the seafood portion.

Warm water prawns could also be worth considering for certain dishes, although their prices have risen too. Compare current supplier quotes and cost each portion before making a switch.

2. Consider pollock instead of cod

With cod and haddock prices remaining exceptionally high, reviewing your whitefish choices could offer a valuable opportunity to manage costs.

Pollock can be a useful alternative for battered fish, fishcakes and other dishes where a white, flaky fish works well. It provides scope to retain familiar customer favourites while exploring different purchasing options.

If you are serving fish and chips as a festive special, compare the cost per portion of suitable pollock and cod products, taking account of coating, cooking yield and portion size.

Always check product specifications, sustainability credentials and any menu descriptions before making a substitution.

3. Make the most of stable pork prices

With pork pricing showing signs of stabilisation, it is worth reviewing where it could feature in your winter menu.

Pork mince can work well in meatballs, festive stuffing-inspired dishes and hearty ragùs, while pork shoulder lends itself to slow-cooked casseroles, braises and winter specials.

Where appropriate, these could provide alternatives to more expensive beef or lamb dishes. However, recipes will need to be adapted for flavour, seasoning and cooking times, and menus should clearly communicate the change to customers.

Remember to consider dietary requirements and ensure any substitution is suitable for the intended dish.

4. Rethink vegetarian dishes featuring feta and halloumi

Feta and halloumi are both facing supply restrictions, making it sensible to review dishes that rely heavily on these ingredients.

For winter menus, consider roasted vegetable bakes, hearty grain bowls, seasonal vegetable tarts or dishes featuring alternative cheeses, depending on availability and the recipe.

Toasted sunflower seeds can also add crunch to salads and grain bowls, while roasted vegetables, pulses and herbs can provide flavour and texture.

Any cheese substitution should be checked for suitability, particularly where vegetarian requirements apply, and menus should be updated to reflect the ingredients used.

5. Explore alternatives to almonds in festive desserts

Almonds are a familiar ingredient in Christmas cakes, frangipane, biscuits, desserts and seasonal toppings. With prices more than doubling compared with 18 months ago, reviewing their use could help manage recipe costs.

Where the recipe allows, toasted sunflower seeds could provide a crunchy topping for desserts, granola and festive breakfast dishes. Other alternatives may work in selected recipes, but texture and flavour will need to be considered.

Important: sunflower seeds are not a direct replacement for ground almonds in every recipe. Almonds are also a regulated allergen, so any recipe change must be assessed for allergen safety and communicated accurately to customers.

The report also suggests that sultanas and raisins could offer a more settled market, although smaller berries may affect appearance and recipe performance.

6. Review your potato portions and formats

Potatoes are a staple across pubs, restaurants, hotels and contract catering, but the outlook for the winter harvest suggests availability and pricing could become more challenging.

Review your menu mix and portion sizes, and compare the cost of fresh potatoes with suitable frozen formats where these meet your quality requirements.

For Christmas menus, consider whether your potato dishes are delivering the right balance of customer appeal, preparation time and cost. Consistent portioning and minimising waste can make a meaningful difference when serving large numbers of covers.

7. Take advantage of egg and orange juice prices

Not every commodity is increasing. The report identifies eggs and orange juice among the categories experiencing stable and falling prices, creating opportunities for festive menus.

Eggs could offer value for breakfast and brunch dishes, quiches, savoury bakes and desserts, while olive oil prices have also eased following improved harvest conditions.

Meanwhile, lower orange juice prices make this a good time to review your festive drinks offering. Christmas brunch and bucks fizz are firmly on the menu, with orange juice providing an opportunity to create a seasonal drinks special.

Always check your latest supplier prices before finalising promotions, as market conditions can change.

Small changes can make a big difference

Commodity price movements do not mean you need to overhaul your entire menu. Often, the best approach is to identify the ingredients having the greatest impact on your food costs and make targeted adjustments.

Before introducing a festive special or confirming a seasonal menu, consider:

• Reviewing portion costs: calculate the cost of each serving rather than looking at the pack price alone.
• Comparing alternatives: assess suitable fish, meat and vegetable options using current supplier quotes.
• Reducing waste: make the most of ingredients across multiple dishes and review preparation yields.
• Planning ahead: monitor availability and order requirements for ingredients likely to face seasonal pressure.
• Protecting quality: ensure substitutions maintain the standard your customers expect and meet all dietary and allergen requirements.

How Trevors Foodservice can help

The CRG Winter 2026 Commodity Report provides a useful starting point for understanding the pressures affecting the foodservice market. However, every kitchen is different, and the right approach will depend on your menu, customer base and purchasing requirements.

Our team can help you review product options, explore suitable alternatives and identify opportunities to manage food costs without compromising on quality.

To discuss in more detail please complete the form below and we’ll get in touch or speak to your Trevors Foodservice representative to discuss your winter purchasing plans and make sure your festive menu is ready for the season ahead.

Market information in this article is based on the CRG Winter 2026 Commodity Report, published October 2026. Prices and availability may change, so please check current quotations with your Trevors Foodservice representative.